Dramas: Castle, Nashville
Castle has been airing behind Dancing with the Stars at Monday at 10 its entire run of seven seasons (the first of which was short). With the long-running dancing competition still rating in the low 2s for most airings, and Castle no longer able to hold onto as much of it as it has in very recent years, it may be time for a move. Such a move would most likely be to either Sunday at 10 or Tuesday at 10, where it would help fix a trouble slot. However, if SHIELD stays put, ABC would want to premiere a male-skewing drama (Quantico?) out of it, and many believe that the low-rated Nashville will take the Sunday spot to replace Revenge. This means that although Castle still has a chance to keep its time slot, fans should be aware that it is just as likely, if not more, to move.
Meanwhile, although I think Nashville would fit very well with Dancing in the Stars, many have pointed out that the best decision for Sunday at 10 would be to put a show there for the sake of getting it to syndication, like Revenge. Next year, that would be Nashville, and maybe it would be lucky enough to hold up decently there. A move is especially likely if ABC picks up the new dramedy Mix, which should go Wednesday at 10.
Comedies: Fresh Off The Boat, The Middle, The Goldbergs, Blackish
If this new family comedy is renewed, ABC knows that they will meed to move it behind an established show. If they don’t, the ratings won’t fix themselves and the show would have a chance of going under a 1.0. Although a Wednesday move is not out of the question, my guess is that they will simply slide it back half an hour to 8:30 on Tuesday, assuming that they will continue to try comedies. Two new ones in a row has a history of not working—(The Goldbergs~Trophy Wife; Selfie~Manhattan Love Story; Fresh Off The Boat~Repeat After Me). If they keep it, it would depend if they are willing to move a comedy out of Wednesday, a block which hasn’t been this stable in a few years now, and which show they would move. Moving The Middle would allow The Goldbergs to take the honors of anchoring the first hour of Wednesday that The Middle has done for half a decade.
Moving Blackish would allow Modern Family to launch another family-friendly, in-house-produced comedy, but such a move would imply that it can keep at least a 2.0, as ABC desperately needs to get one of its own sitcoms to syndication. Finally, moving The Goldbergs would mean The Middle could launch a new show. That move makes sense to me the most unless ABC decides to pick up Knoxville (as is the case in my current fantasy schedule, but it is flying under the radar with others.
Reality: Shark Tank
Shark Tank’s move would most likely be to Friday at 8 in order to give a good lead-in to comedies at 9pm, something that I think is likely to happen if Last Man Standing ends. Although it could be used to boost Tuesdays at 8, Fridays would collapse in the process. The contenders for the comedies airing on Friday? If they want a veteran there, then The Middle; as far as new comedies, Nerd Herd, Chev & Bev if they want single camera comedies; Dr. Ken and Delores & Jermaine if they want to continue trying multi-cams.
There you have it! Please keep in mind that although I am focusing on ABC now, I am open to doing other networks in the near future.