Prediction for The Premiere of The Slap—UPDATED 2/13

The Slap will be premiering on Thursday, February 12 on NBC at 8pm. Here are my predictions for its premiere ratings and why:

Network: NBC
Time: Thursday, February 12 at 8 pm
Genre: Single Camera Family Drama
Duration: 1 hour including commercials
Theme: (from NBC’s press release, December 2014) Meet Hector: a public servant, husband, father and valued friend on the cusp of his 40th. Meet Aisha: Hector’s beautiful and intelligent wife who is planning his birthday party filled with friends and his very boisterous Greek family. Sounds like the makings of a great day, right? Wrong. As Hector tries to navigate family politics, awkward friendships and the young woman he is dangerously captivated by, the built-up tension explodes when Hector’s hotheaded cousin slaps another couple’s misbehaving child. Everyone is understandably stunned, and the party abruptly ends with the child’s parents vowing legal action. But what the hosts and guests don’t know is that this moment will ignite a chain of events that will uncover long-buried secrets within this group of friends and family … and vigorously challenge the core values of everyone involved.
Lead-in: None
Lead-out: The Blacklist
Broadcast Competition: The Big Bang Theory, Mom, American Idol, Gray’s Anatomy, The Vampire Diaries
Test Appeal: 68 on Metacritic, Wall Street Journal calls it “the show you’ll love to hate”
Pros: It’s a new series and people may be curious about it. Some of its competition may not share an audience with the show.
Cons: It is airing on NBC against heavy competition with no lead in. They couldn’t get anything to work there last year even with no competition from ABC, and Mom is tougher competition than The Millers. And, well, NBC really can’t find a hit this year, and I’m not sure they are expecting that out of an 8-episode special series adapted from an Australian show and a novel. The show has received mediocre reviews.
Expected Range: 0.7-1.4
PREDICTION: 0.8
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ACTUAL RATING: 1.1

My prediction of the show’s rating was three tenths pessimistic, but regardless the show premiered to a very low number. NBC’s press release spin was that it was this season’s second-best show in the time slot for the network, a small feat considering that there have ONLY been two shows in the time slot. Regardless, The Slap does not have a promising outlook, and remember that this week it went up against a rerun of The Big Bang Theory and a weakened Mom. Next week it will have to face an original of the former and the series premiere of The Odd Couple.