Adult 18-49 Ratings Analysis Week of 2/16—FINAL

Sunday

-NBC was the clear winner of the night, as it has been almost every Sunday so far this season, by airing an SNL special with ratings so high it made my poll options look embarrassing. The ratings were just below those of the Grammy Awards last week and The Blacklist’s post-Super Bowl airing the week before. Even the Red Carpet event at 7 out-rated most of last week’s programs, and almost doubled NBC’s top scripted show.

-FOX was seemingly hurt a lot by this, with Brooklyn 9-9 hitting a series low and going sub-1, while The Simpsons and Family Guy did little better, and Bob’s Burgers just as bad. Mulaney’s silent finale had a rating of a 0.4.

-Poor CSI. It finished its season, and possibly series, with a very low 1.1. Clearly the Sunday move was a mistake as Stalker did not improve at all on its previous time slot. Hopefully for the fans it gets another season and goes out with more dignity.

-ABC aired a Bachelor special which did tremendously below the 2.7 rating the last episode received, most likely due to the high ratings of the SNL special. Before, the America’s Funniest Home Videos Special was even with the last airing, which surprised me because it was the 25th Anniversary Special.

Monday

-Perhaps the biggest news of the night is that everything ABC, CBS, and FOX broadcasted last night out-rated everything they showed on Sunday.

-NBC’s ratings are back to normal, with the recently renewed Celebrity Apprentice finishing its season in the mid-1s, and the most-likely series finale of State of Affairs in the low 1s. The latter reportedly ended with a cliffhanger, tough that means nothing when it comes to renewal prospects. It has been low-rated throughout its run, and unfortunately television is a business, sometimes cruel, that allows shows to end in such a way.

-CBS’s comedies stayed mostly steady this week, with both 2 Broke Girls and Mike & Molly rating a 2.2. Both are locks with renewals, especially considering the disappointments of The Millers and The McCarthys, and the finishing of Two and a Half Men. After, Stevie Wonder’s Grammy special only hit a 1.4, a mediocre, but still respectable, number.

-Luckily for FOX, Gotham rebounded and is back in the 2s. It is currently their second-highest-rated scripted show, well behind Empire. Sleepy Hollow remained in its usual range, tying the Stevie Wonder special. The show is yet to be renewed, and some fans are already going far enough to start “renew Sleepy Hollow” campaigns. The show pulls respectable numbers for FOX, yet is down substantially from its ratings last season.

-Jane the Virgin continues to perform well enough for The CW, having grown in the ratings since its Golden Globes win. Both it and The Originals met at a 0.6, with the latter down from the ratings it received last year when airing on Tuesdays.

-ABC’s top three programs of the week so far, in order, are the Monday airing of The Bachelor, the Sunday airing of The Bachelor, and the Sunday special entitled “The Bachelor: Chris Tells All”. Castle, its lone scripted show this week so far, received a 1.6, enough to be considered respectable and enough to out-rate America’s Funniest Home Videos. Castle has a very high likelihood of being renewed, though its ratings are down from last season.

Tuesday

-Both of the NCISs dipped, but not to worry, they were still the top two programs of the night. Person of Interest remained steady at a 1.6, which was enough for it to win its time slot.

-Fresh Off The Boat was one of the real winners of the night, growing yet again to a 1.9. It has grown a tenth in each of its last two airings, something unusual for such a new show. It airs in a tough time slot, and the real test is how it does against The Voice. However, regardless of if it falls against the Voice, ABC most likely is taking note of its respectable fan base. The series premiere of Repeat After Me dropped half a ratings point to a 1.4 from Fresh Off The Boat, two tenths above my prediction. I personally expect it to drop further against The Voice, but the beauty of reality comedy shows is that one can jump in any time without feeling the need to have to watch other episodes first.

-Elsewhere on ABC, Agent Carter had 100% retention from Repeat After Me. It is debatable whether or not they will want to keep the show, but two things it has going for it are the attached Marvel name, and the fact that lower expectations may be given to shows like it that simply serve as a winter bridge.

-NBC saw more of the usual numbers last night, with Parks and Recreation still in the low 1s, as well as Marry Me and About A Boy sub-1. Although Chicago Fire grew 100% from its lead-in, it still tied last week’s series low. Could Chicago PD beat it???

-The Flash continues to be a big hit for The CW’s standards from 8-9, tying the 8:30 telecast of Repeat After Me and beating both telecasts of Parks and Recreation, beating both MasterChef Junior and Repeat After Me. Elsewhere, Supernatural’s rating was a 0.9. Although this number is very respectable for the network, we shall see soon if Empire hurts it when it moves to Wednesday.

-FOX overall had a respectable night, with MasterChef Junior’s rating being a 1.8, enough to come in second place for the hour. New Girl’s rating was a 1.4, leading into The Mindy Project’s 1.1. Although the latter is low-rated, fans can count on seeing another season for syndication purposes.

Wednesday

-FOX easily was the winner of the night, with Empire rating just over a 5.0. The show premiered to an outstanding 3.8 just a month and a half ago, and ratings rising like this is simply unprecedented. Preceding Empire was American Idol, which is up one tenth year-to-year with a 2.8. The once mega-hit singing competition has been falling drastically in the ratings for the last few years, but now it appears its lead-out has stopped its bleeding.

-On CBS, The Mentalist’s series finale had a 1.3 rating, surely disappointing for the people running and supporting the once-hit. Although I did not post a poll, I had predicted the show would have received a much higher rating. This led into Stalker’s 1.2, a low rating that most likely put the nail in the coffin for the show. If not, viewers should take note that it returns on Saturdays in the summer, where it is unlikely to get half the numbers it is now.

-ABC’s comedy block continues to rate well, with The Middle, The Goldbergs, and Blackish, all getting a 2.2 rating. Blackish’s lead-in was Modern Family, which rated a 3.1, enough to put it in first place for ABC’s week so far. Will Scandal dethrone it tonight, or will it fall against Two and a Half Men’s finale?Nashville, meanwhile, fell almost a full ratings point from Blackish.

-NBC’s The Mysteries of Laura lost to The CW’s Arrow with a 1.1 rating this week. Unless the show is The Flash, a Big 4 network has to be less-than-pleased to tie a CW show. Fortunately for NBC the rest of its line-up did much better, with Law & Order: SVU rating a 1.6, and Chicago PD a 1.7. The latter is up three tenths from last week, and has comfortably out-rated its mother show, Chicago Fire. Last week, NBC’s top scripted show was The Blacklist with a 1.7. Since its ratings have declined every week and it’s going against the Two and a Half Men Finale tonight, could Chicago PD take the honors of being NBC’s highest-rated scripted show, or will it have to settle for second? It’s nothing for the network to brag about, but surely impressive for the show nonetheless.

-As mentioned earlier, Arrow, which had a 1.2 rating, beat NBC’s The Mysteries of Laura, and was also just one tenth shy of The Mentalist’s series finale. This led into The 100, which received yet another 0.5—its sixth in a row. The show has a cult fan base that pulls numbers similar to those of The Originals and Jane the Virgin. Its retention from Arrow, however, remains poor, and there is a strong possibility of it moving next season sue to the fact that a long-running veteran (Supernatural) will be inheriting the slot shortly. If iZombie does well behind The Flash, they may not feel the need to move it. Also, moving Supernatural only for a short period of time at the end of the season only to move it back could be a big risk. So, The 100’s time slot next season is surely uncertain.

Thursday

-Alright, my Two and a Half Men prediction was a little bit off. I guessed a 6.0, the real rating was a 3.1. Apparently I overestimated the show’s potential, as it was a much bigger hit awhile ago and I expected more people to tune in for nostalgia and/or closure. On the bright side for the show, it did rise a whole ratings point from last week’s episode. It had 100% retention from the series premiere of The Odd Couple, starring Matthew Perry and Thomas Lennon, but the real test for the show is how it holds up in upcoming weeks with all the negative reviews. Its lead-in this week was a typically-rated episode of The Big Bang Theory, which had a 4.4 in the key demographic. At the end of the night, Elementary’s rating was a 1.5, which was not helped much by its much-larger-than-normal lead-in.

-ABC continues to dominate with Shonda’s TGIT, with Gray’s Anatomy actually rising to a 2.5, and Scandal and How to Get Away with Murder holding up respectively at a 3.2 and 28, respectively.

-NBC had another poor Thursday night, but on the bright side The Blacklist held steady—even though it is at a 1.7—sadly tying for the network’s highest-rated scripted show of the week. Allegiance managed to rise this week, but only to a lackluster 0.9. Leading off the night was the second episode of The Slap, which rated at a 0.8.

-FOX’s American Idol rated at a 2.1 this Thursday, a respectable number given its age and the competition. This led into a 0.9 for Backstrom, which will almost certainly be cancelled by the end of the season.

-The CW held steady with typical numbers for both The Vampire Diaries and Reign, rating a 07 and a 0.4 respectively.

Friday

-ABC had a night with ratings all over the place, starting with Last Man Standing at a typical 1.3, Cristela down to a 0.9, Shark Tank soaring out of it to a season-high 2.2, followed by 20/29, at a 1.6 rating. Shark Tank was strong enough to tie the non-Modern Family Wednesday comedies, and given the time slot and growth from the lead-in, it won the tie-breaker and became the sixth highest rated program of ABC’s week.

-Blue Bloods had a 1.5 rating Friday night, which is extremely impressive given the time slot and the fact that it grew from its Hawaii 5-0 lead-in. This was enough to make it the ninth highest rated program of CBS’s week, notable ahead of Elementary, Stalker, and the series finale of The Mentalist. Earlier in the night for CBS, Undercover Boss had a 1.3 rating, and Hawaii 5-0 rose from its lead-in to hit a 1.4. The latter is fighting for renewal.

-Speaking of fighting for renewal, The CW’s Hart of Dixie had a 0.4 rating, tying recently-renewed Reign on a Friday night.

-FOX continues to struggle with reality filler World’s Funniest Fails hitting a 0.8 rating, and the once-Empire-sized-hit Glee hitting a 0.6 on one of its final episodes. The only program this week that the latter beat on FOX was the series finale of Mulaney, a show that was being burned off in the Sunday at 7 time slot.

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