Ratings Analysis—Week of 2/9/15

Sunday

-FOX counter-programmed their entire lineup against the Grammy Awards, something they will arguably forget, narrowly beating ABC’s telecast of The Hunger Games. Although Brooklyn 9-9 impressively retained 100% of The Simpsons, a 1.2 is a 1.2 and both are significantly down from other numbers they have seen this season. Once again Family Guy was #1 for the network, yet it also took a massive hit against the Grammys and the midseason premiere of The Walking Dead. Bob’s Burgers rounded out the night with a 1.0, losing almost 30% of its lead-in but fear not, the show has already been renewed.

-CBS was the real winner of the broadcast night by telecasting the 57th Annual Grammy Awards, with Sam Smith and Beck among the big winners. Interestingly the awards show dropped by a full ratings point in the ratings from the 9pm hour to the 10pm hour, from a 9.3 to a still-massive 8.3. This is still down over 10% from last year’s telecast, which had a preliminary rating of a 9.9.

-NBC counter-programmed a three hour special of the reality series American Ninja Warrior, which pulled a 0.6 in its first two hours and a 0.7 in the third hour. This is well below the averages it pulled airing last year during the hiatus of The Voice on Mondays.

Monday

-To me, the real story of the night was that Jane the Virgin (0.6) managed to grow a tenth out of The Originals, which itself fell to a series low. Regardless, both shows are up year-to-year from Beauty and the Beast and Hart of Dixie.

-Also very significant was the fall of The Celebrity Apprentice’s second-to-last episode, which hit a 1.4 from last week’s 2.1. This led into a 1.0 for State of Affairs, which did not seem too affected by the rating of its leadin, albeit the show’s ratings show no sign of improvement.

-The Bachelor was able to hit a 2.7 on ABC, which led to a slightly-up Castle (1.6). Both should be safe for renewal.

-CBS pulled very respectable numbers again last night, with the comedies both above a 2.0 and Scorpion growing out of Mike & Molly. At 10pm, NCIS:LA’s rating was a 1.7. Despite being down from last year, it was even with last week and up from Intelligence’s performance in the time slot.

-Sadly for FOX, both Gotham and Sleepy Hollow fell to series lows, despite the night starting out to be one of FOX’s strongest last fall. This rating is especially troublesome for Sleepy Hollow (1.2) as no renewal or cancellation decision has been made yet. My guess is Thursday at 9 after Bones next fall, but FOX will certainly be keeping a close eye on the ratings going forth.

Tuesday

-I was pleasantly surprised to see Fresh Off The Boat maintain high 1s given the time slot, and especially happy that it grew a tenth in the second half-hour. The 1.8 at 8:30 is just one tenth away from tying the rating of the last new Blackish episode. Elsewhere, Agent Carter saw a one-tenth bump. Seemingly the switch from Shark Tank to Fresh Off The Boat as a lead-in had no effect. Finishing off the night was Forever, which had a 1.1, up two tenths from the last episode but still not up to par for renewal talks.

-CBS won the night by a long shot starting out the night with the NCISs respectively rating a 2.9 and 2.3. Person of Interest was able to win its timeslot with a 1.6.

-Speaking of which, Chicago Fire fell to a series low of a 1.4, something that does not bode well for NBC considering its reliability to the network. On the bright side, it manage to grow five tenths out of About A Boy, which tied Marry Me, which in turn lost two tenths of Parks and Recreation’s 1.0 at 8:30. As a result, NBC tied The CW in the Adult 18-49 rating.

-Not much new for The CW this week, which saw The Flash rise to a 1.5, besting FOX’s MasterChef Junior and NBC’s Parks and Recreation in the time slot. Despite this rise, Supernatural stayed at the 0.8 it hit last airing, certainly a little underwhelming. Hopefully for the network it does not fall upon its upcoming move to Wednesday.

-MasterChef Junior and New Girl were both down this week, with a 1.4 and a 1.3 respectively. The Mindy Project finished off FOX’s night with a low 1.0, but potential syndication value still makes it a strong candidate for renewal.

Wednesday

-Not many surprises on ABC tonight with the comedy lineup back intact, with Modern Family rating a 3.3 and the others low 2s. Blackish continues to drop a low from Modern Family (~36%), but given the in-house production and compatibility, they will probably keep it where it is next season. At 10pm, Nashville tied Stalker and Chicago PD at a 1.4.

-FOX is the clear winner, as always, this night, averaging a 3.8. American Idol and Empire were under/over that average, respectively, but a whole ratings point, giving Empire yet another series high. It has grown a full ratings point since its premiere in January.

-The highlight of NBC’s night was perhaps that Chicago PD tied its mother show this week, both getting a 1.4. It had 100% retention out of Law & Order: SVU, and both were up considerably above the 1.0 rating that The Mysteries of Laura got.

-Arrow received a 1.1 on The CW, besting time-slot competitor The Mysteries of Laura on NBC. The 100’s rating was a 0.5, steady with the rest of its season which was enough to get it a third season. On a similar note, it has been reported that the CW ordered a fourth season of Beauty and the Beast, though this may be just a rumor.

-Finally, The Mentalist’s rating was a 1.4 as it winds down to its finish, while Criminal minds grew out of it to hit a 1.9, which is down to a series low and below the typical numbers seen by freshmen 9pm shows on CBS. Stalker finished the night with a 1.4, which is very respectable for a show that will most likely not return next season.

Thursday

-Shondaland continues to dominate Thursday nights for ABC, with all three shows doing approximately the same as last week.

-NBC now has ZERO shows that can hit a 2.0, after The Blacklist lost more than half a ratings point its time slot premiere. Although it improved the time slot, I predicted these ratings since the beginning of the season and see this move as a detrimental mistake.

-CBS having The Big Bang Theory as a rerun led to a massive decline to Mom’s rating, which was a 2.1, even with its rerun lead-in and Two and a Half Men lead-out. I am very surprised with the latter not rising, seeing that the legendary series is coming to a close next week. Elementary’s rating was a 1.4, down three tenths of a ratings point from its Big Bang Bang Theory rerun lead-in. Quick Reminder: Next Thursday, CBS will air a new episode of The Big Bang Theory, followed by the series premiere of The Odd Couple, the one-hour series finale of Two and a Half Men, and an all-new Elementary. Mom will return the following week at 9:30 behind a Big Bang Theory rerun. I expect mid 1s-low 2s throughout the rest of its season.

-FOX saw Backstrom rise a little to a still-weak 1.2, which was over a full ratings point below American Idol. The latter is down seven tenths from the 3.0 it hit this time last season.

-The CW also saw more of the same this night, with The Vampire Diaries’ rating being a 0.7, and Reign getting a 0.4.

Friday

-Let me put it bluntly: CBS had a bad night. Particularly, Hawaii 5-0, getting a rating that will not help it in pursuing a renewal. On the bright side, Blue Bloods grew two tenths out of it, a Friday staple and lock for renewal.

-ABC did not air new episodes of the comedies, but rather a Valentine’s Day special of Charlie Brown (which I forgot even exists). Shark Tank remains string on Friday, while 20/20 lost a lot of its leadin. Don’t worry—both will be renewed.

-Poor Glee. FOX’s two-season renewal two years ago gave the show no dignity to go out on, receiving a 0.6—in perspective, about 10% of the ratings it got in its heyday. Even worse, it continues to drop from World’s Funniest Fails.

-Constantine has remained this week at its 0.8, meaning that regardless of how much fans campaign otherwise it has a slim to no chance of renewal—on NBC. There are talks that SyFy is looking to rename it and pick it up, but I still wouldn’t get my hopes up. Later, once-Friday-hit Grimm received a 1.1, and sadly, that is not much below (if any) NBC’s scripted show average. It’s top show this week was the Blacklist, which rated at a 1.7, a full ratings point below what it typically got last fall on Monday, and a rating that no network would like to brag about. Finishing off NBC’s Friday night was Dateline NBC, which recently switched time slots with Constantine. Neither show benefitted whatsoever from the switch.

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