Prediction for the 3rd & 4th Episodes of Fresh Off The Boat: UPDATED 2/11

Network: ABC
Time: Tuesday, February 10 at 8
Genre: Single Camera Sitcom
Duration: 30 Minutes
Theme: An Asian-American family struggles to adjust with the cultures of Orlando, Florida after leaving DC’s Chinatown.
Lead-in: None
Lead-out: Fresh Off The Boat
Competition: NCIS, MasterChef Junior, Parks and Recreation
Pros: The promos are heavily advertising its Tuesday premiere. Critical response has been warm and premiere numbers solid (on par with The Middle’s series premiere numbers).
Cons: Has comedy competition. Airing in a historically bad time slot with no companion. No ABC comedy has done successfully on Tuesday in years. Many will be confused that it is the third episode and viewers could switch for multiple reasons.

Expected Range: 1.4-1.8
PREDICTION: 1.4
I’m going to go with my gut on this one but hopefully it will be higher! I have seen promotion on ABC Family during a rerun of The Middle and on TBS during a rerun of The Big Bang Theory, as well as on ABC, so hopefully the promotion pays off.

ACTUAL RATING: 1.7

Tuesday at 8:30

Competition: Same
Lead-in: Fresh Off The Boat
Lead-out: Marvel’s Agent Carter
Pros: Exposure for the show and people could stay tuned from the first episode.
Cons: Looking forward to this show from before it was picked up, even I didn’t realize it was airing here until very recently. I’m sure that’s the case with others.

Expected Range: 1.1-1.6
PREDICTION: 1.2

ACTUAL RATING: 1.8
These are pessimistic numbers but I think it will rebound. Repeat After Me, on the other hand…

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

<u>Post-Rating Analysis</u>

I am very pleased to see that Fresh Off The Boat outdid my arguably low expectations. Its Tuesday premiere was a few tenths above that of Selfie’s, and even more promising is the fact that it grew in the half-hour, pending adjustments (judging by last week there may be some).

The true test is how it holds up against The Voice. Currently, I think it needs to floor around a 1.4 in order to be renewed. As more data points become available each week, hopefully my predictions can become a little more reliable.

I’m waiting to see how Blackish rates now, whether it rebounds or stays at that 1.9, or even fall some more.

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